Science Source

Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Air Temperature Variability: 1840–2007

Combines meteorological station records and regional climate model output to develop a continuous 168-yr (1840–2007) spatial reconstruction of monthly, seasonal, and annual mean Greenland ice sheet near-surface air temperatures
Uses independent observations to assess and compensate for systematic errors in the model output
Investigates spatial and temporal temperature variability on seasonal and annual time scales
Finds that volcanic cooling episodes are concentrated in winter and along the western ice sheet slope, and interdecadal warming trends coincide with an absence of major volcanic eruptions
Finds that the year 2003 was the only year of 1840–2007 with a warm anomaly that exceeds three standard deviations from the 1951–80 base period
Finds the annual whole ice sheet 1919–32 warming trend is 33% greater in magnitude than the 1994–2007 warming
However, the data also shows the recent warming was stronger along western Greenland in autumn and southern Greenland in winter
Finds spring trends marked the 1920s warming onset, while autumn leads the 1994–2007 warming
Finds in contrast to the 1920s warming, the 1994–2007 warming has not surpassed the Northern Hemisphere anomaly—states an additional 1.0°–1.5°C of annual mean warming would be needed for Greenland to be in phase with the Northern Hemispheric pattern
Results suggest that the ice sheet melt rates and mass deficit will continue to grow in the early twenty-first century as Greenland’s climate catches up with the Northern Hemisphere warming trend and the Arctic climate warms according to global climate model predictions