Science Source

The impact of Arctic warming on the midlatitude jet‐stream: Can it? Has it? Will it?

States that the Arctic lower atmosphere has warmed more rapidly than that of the globe as a whole, and this has been accompanied by unprecedented sea ice melt
States that such large environmental changes are already having profound impacts on the flora, fauna, and inhabitants of the Arctic region
Investigates the open question as to whether these Arctic changes have an effect on the jet-stream and thereby influence weather patterns farther south
States that this broad question has recently received a lot of scientific and media attention, but conclusions appear contradictory rather than consensual
Argues that one point of confusion has arisen due to ambiguities in the exact question being posed
Frames inquiries around three distinct questions: Can Arctic warming influence the midlatitude jet-stream? Has Arctic warming significantly influenced the midlatitude jet-stream? Will Arctic warming significantly influence the midlatitude jet-stream?
Argues that framing the discussion around the three questions: Can it?, Has it?, and Will it? provides insight into the common themes emerging in the literature as well as highlights the challenges ahead
Finds that there is a growing consensus in the model-based literature that that Arctic warming can, in isolation, significantly influence the midlatitude circulation, this neither implies that it has in the past, nor that it will in the future