Oct 29, 2017

Impact of climate change on New York City’s coastal flood hazard: Increasing flood heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE

Andra J. Garner, Michael E. Mann, Kerry A. Emanuel, Robert E. Kopp, Ning Ling, Richard B. Alley, Benjamin P. Horton, Robert M. DeContok, Jeffrey P. Donnelly, and David Pollard
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
  • Authors combine downscaled tropical cyclones, storm-surge models, and probabilistic sea-level rise projections to assess flood hazard associated with changing storm characteristics and sea-level rise in New York City from the preindustrial era to 2300
  • Finds that compensation between increased storm intensity and offshore shifts in storm tracks causes minimal change in modeled storm-surge heights through 2300
  • Finds, however, that projected sea-level rise leads to large increases in future overall flood heights associated with tropical cyclones in New York City
  • Concludes that flood height return periods that were ∼500 y during the preindustrial era have fallen to ∼25 y at present and are projected to fall to ∼5 y within the next three decades