Nov 20, 2017

Increased rainfall volume from future convective storms in the US

by
Andreas F. Prein, Changhai Liu, Greg J. Holland, Kyoko Ikeda, Martyn P. Clark, Roy M. Rasmussen, Stanley B. Trier
,
Nature Climate Change
  • States that mesoscale convective system (MCS)-organized convective storms with a size of ~100 km have increased in frequency and intensity in the USA over the past 35 years, causing fatalities and economic losses
  • Uses a North American-scale convection-permitting model which is able to realistically simulate MSCs4 to investigate their change by the end-of-century under RCP8.5
  • A storm-tracking algorithm indicates that intense summertime MCS frequency will more than triple in North America
  • Finds that the the combined effect of a 15–40% increase in maximum precipitation rates and a significant spreading of regions impacted by heavy precipitation results in up to 80% increases in the total MCS precipitation volume, focused in a 40 km radius around the storm centre