Dec 1, 2006

Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment

B. N. Goswami, V. Venugopal, D. Sengupta, M. S. Madhusoodanan, Prince K. Xavier
  • States the stability of the Indian monsoon rainfall over the past century has been a puzzle against a backdrop of rising global surface temperature
  • Shows—by using a daily rainfall data set—(i) a significant rising trends in the frequency and the magnitude of extreme rain events and (ii) a significant decreasing trend in the frequency of moderate events over central India during the monsoon seasons from 1951 to 2000
  • Finds the seasonal mean rainfall does not show a significant trend, because the contribution from increasing heavy events is offset by decreasing moderate events
  • States a substantial increase in hazards related to heavy rain is expected over central India in the future