Jan 11, 2018

Influence of Global Warming on Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensities during 2015

Se-Hwan Yang and Nam-Young Kang
AMS Journal of Climate
  • States that the climate of 2015 was characterized by a strong El Niño, global warmth, and record-setting tropical cyclone (TC) intensity for western North Pacific typhoons
  • Shows that the highest TC intensity in 32 years (1984–2015) is shown to be a consequence of above normal TC activity—following natural internal variation—and greater efficiency of intensity
  • Statistical models show that the EINT is mostly due to the anomalous warmth in the environment indicated by global mean sea surface temperature
  • Finds, in comparison, that the EINT due to El Niño is negligible
  • This implies that the record-setting intensity of 2015 might not have occurred without environmental warming and suggests that a year with even greater TC intensity is possible in the near future when above normal activity coincides with another record EINT due to continued multidecadal warming