- States that, resting atop a deep marine basin, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has long been considered prone to instability
- Investigates the sensitivity of Thwaites Glacier to ocean melt and whether unstable retreat is already underway, using a numerical model
- The model reproduces observed losses when forced with ocean melt comparable to estimates
- Finds that simulated losses are moderate (<0.25 mm per year sea level) over the 21st Century, but generally increase thereafter
- Finds that, except possibly for the lowest-melt scenario, the simulations indicate early-stage collapse has begun
- States that the timescale is less certain, with onset of rapid (> 1 mm per year of sea-level rise) collapse for the different simulations within the range of two to nine centuries
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