Science Source
Multimodel Detection and Attribution of Extreme Temperature Changes
- Conducts optimal fingerprinting analyses using 12 climate models integrated under anthropogenic-only forcing or natural plus anthropogenic forcing
- Compares observed and simulated changes in annual extreme temperature indices of coldest night and day (TNn and TXn) and warmest night and day (TNx and TXx) from 1951 to 2000
- Detects the anthropogenic signal in global and northern continental means of all four indices, albeit less robustly for TXx, which is consistent with previous findings
- Finds the detected anthropogenic signals to be separable from natural forcing influence at the global scale and to a lesser extent at continental and subcontinental scales
- Finds that detection occurs more frequently in TNx and TNn than in other indices, particularly at smaller scales, supporting previous studies based on different methods
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