Science Source

Jennifer A. Francis, Natasa Skific, Stephen J. Vavrus

Geophysical Research Letters

Published date September 25, 2018

North American weather regimes are becoming more persistent: Is Arctic amplification a factor?

States that rapid Arctic warming is hypothesized to favor an increased persistence of regional weather patterns in the northern hemisphere
Persistent conditions can lead to drought, heatwaves, prolonged cold spells, and storminess that can cost millions of dollars in damage and disrupt societal and ecosystem norms
This study defines a new metric called long‐duration events (LDEs) ‐‐ conditions that endure at least 4 consecutive days ‐‐ and takes two independent approaches to assessing seasonal changes in weather‐pattern persistence over North America
- one applies precipitation measurements at weather stations across the United States
- the other is based on a cluster analysis of large‐scale, upper‐level atmospheric patterns
Both methods indicate an overall increase in LDEs
Find that large‐scale patterns consistent with a warm Arctic exhibit an increased frequency of LDEs, suggesting that further Arctic warming may favor persistent weather patterns that can lead to weather extremes