Science Source

Ivy Tan, Trude Storelvmo, Mark D. Zelinka

Science

Published date April 8, 2016

Observational constraints on mixed-phase clouds imply higher climate sensitivity

States that how much global average temperature eventually will rise depends on the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS), which relates atmospheric CO2 concentration to atmospheric temperature
States that ECS has been estimated to be between 2.0° and 4.6°C for decades, with much of that uncertainty owing to the difficulty of establishing the effects of clouds on Earth's energy budget
Uses satellite observations to constrain the radiative impact of mixed phase clouds
Concludes that ECS could be between 5.0° and 5.3°C—higher than suggested by most global climate models