Apr 28, 2014

Observed changes in extreme wet and dry spells during the South Asian summer monsoon season

Deepti Singh, Michael Tsiang, Bala Rajaratnam, Noah S. Diffenbaugh
Nature Climate Change
  • Completes a comprehensive statistical analysis of precipitation observations from 1951–2011
  • Shows that statistically significant decreases in peak-season precipitation over the core-monsoon region have co-occurred with statistically significant increases in daily-scale precipitation variability
  • Finds statistically significant increases in the frequency of dry spells and intensity of wet spells, and statistically significant decreases in the intensity of dry spells
  • Finds that these changes in extreme wet and dry spell characteristics are supported by increases in convective available potential energy and low-level moisture convergence, along with changes to the large-scale circulation aloft in the atmosphere