Science Source

Observed drought indices show increasing divergence across Europe

Asks:
- How have various types of European drought changed?
- How do these changes compare with climate projections?
- What are the causes of observed differences?
Reveals, for the first time, a regional divergence in drought likelihood as measured by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) across Europe over the period 1958–2014
Finds that this divergence is driven primarily by an increase in temperature from 1970–2014, which in turn increased reference evapotranspiration (ET0) and thereby drought area measured by the SPEI
Analysis shows increasing drought frequencies in southern Europe and decreasing frequencies in northern Europe
Finds that increases in temperature and ET0 have enhanced droughts in southern Europe while counteracting increased precipitation in northern Europe
States that this is consistent with projections under climate change, indicating that climate change impacts on European drought may already be observable