Science Source

Ocean currents modify the coupling between climate change and biogeographical shifts

States that biogeographical shifts are a ubiquitous global response to climate change
Uses a global meta-dataset of observed range shifts of marine species to show that incorporating directional agreement between flow and climate significantly increases the proportion of explained variance.
Proposes a simple metric that measures the degrees of directional agreement of ocean (or air) currents with thermal gradients and considers the effects of directional forces in predictions of climate-driven range shifts
Finds that ocean flows are to both facilitate and hinder shifts depending on their directional agreement with spatial gradients of temperature
Finds that effects are shaped by the locations of shifts in the range (trailing, leading or centroid) and taxonomic identity of species
These results support the global effects of climatic changes on distribution shifts and stress the importance of framing climate expectations in reference to other non-climatic interacting factors