John C. Fyfe, Knut von Salzen, Nathan P. Gillett, Vivek K. Arora, Gregory M. Flato, Joseph R. McConnell

Scientific Reports

Published date September 12, 2013

One hundred years of Arctic surface temperature variation due to anthropogenic influence

  • Observations show that Arctic-average surface temperature increased from 1900 to 1940, decreased from 1940 to 1970, and increased from 1970 to present
  • Uses new observational data and improved climate models employing observed natural and anthropogenic forcings and demonstrates that contributions from greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions, along with explosive volcanic eruptions, explain most of this observed variation in Arctic surface temperature since 1900
  • Finds that climate model simulations without natural and anthropogenic forcings indicate very low probabilities that the observed trends in each of these periods were due to internal climate variability alone