Science Source
Michael E. Mann, Stefan Rahmstorf, Kai Kornhuber, Byron A. Steinman, Sonya K. Miller, Stefan Petri, Dim Coumou
Science Advances
Published date October 31, 2018
Science Advances
Published date October 31, 2018
Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events: The role of quasi-resonant amplification
- States that persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been associated with high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves, with zonal wave numbers 6 to 8 resulting from the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA)
- Examines state-of-the-art climate model projections
- Finds that QRA events are likely to increase by ~50% this century under business-as-usual carbon emissions, but there is considerable variation among climate models
- Concludes that a reduction in midlatitude aerosol loading could actually lead to Arctic de-amplification this century, ameliorating potential increases in persistent extreme weather events
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