Hiroyuki Murakami, Bin Wang, Tim Li, Akio Kitoh

Nature Climate Change

Published date May 5, 2013

Projected increase in tropical cyclones near Hawaii

  • Indicates stronger hurricane activity in a warmer climate in the central Pacifc due to reduced vertical wind shear, increased precipitation, humidity, and sea surface temperature
  • Uses a state-of-the-art high-resolution global climate model to perform a suite of future warming experiments (2075–2099)
  • Finds a robust prediction of an increase in tropical cyclone frequency of occurrence around the Hawaiian Islands
  • Uses a physically based empirical model analysis which reveals that the substantial increase in the likelihood of tropical cyclone frequency is primarily associated with a northwestward shifting of the tropical cyclone track in the open ocean southeast of the islands
  • Finds significant and robust changes in large-scale environmental conditions strengthen in situ tropical cyclone activity in the subtropical central Pacific