Sep 27, 2019

Rapid attribution of the extreme rainfall in Texas from Tropical Storm Imelda

World Weather Attribution
  • States that the precipitation recorded on 19–20 September 2019 associated with Tropical Storm Imelda was extreme 
    • At the station with the highest total amount of rainfall: approx. 1-in-1200-yr rainfall 
    • At other stations between East Houston and Beaumont, return times were almost as high
    • At any of 85 stations along the Gulf Coast, the same amount of rainfall would be regarded as 1-in-50-yr rainfall
  • Analyses show that the amount of rainfall in such an event has increased by 18% (11% to 28%) since 1900
  • Concludes that two-day extreme precipitation events along the Gulf Coast as intense as observed on 19–20 September 2019 or higher have become 1.6 to 2.6 times more likely due to anthropogenic climate change
  • Results highlight that climate change has clearly led to increased precipitation during extreme events in southeast Texas