Science Source
Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100 AD
- Uses a physically plausible four parameter linear response equation to relate 2,000 years of global temperatures and sea leve
- Estimates likelihood distributions of equation parameters using Monte Carlo inversion, which then allows visualization of past and future sea level scenarios
- Finds that the model has good predictive power when calibrated on the pre-1990 period and validated against the high rates of sea level rise from the satellite altimetry
- Finds that, over the last 2,000 years minimum sea level (−19 to −26 cm) occurred around 1730 ad, maximum sea level (12–21 cm) around 1150 ad
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