May 5, 2015
Sea-level rise and other influences on decadal-scale salinity variability in a coastal plain estuary
by
,
Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science
- Determines the response of salinity in the Delaware Estuary to climatic variations using statistical models and long-term (1950-present) records of salinity from the U.S. Geological Surveyand the Haskin Shellfish Research Laboratory
- Finds that several locations in the estuary show significant upward trends in salinity
- Finds insignificant trends at locations that are normally upstream of the salt front
- The models indicate a positive correlation between rising sea levels and increasing residual salinity, with salinity rising from 2.5 to 4.4 per meter of sea-level rise
- These results are consistent with results from 1D and dynamical models
- Finds that wind stress also appears to play some role in driving salinity variations, consistent with its effect on vertical mixing and Ekman transport between the estuary and the ocean
- The results suggest that continued sea-level rise in the future will cause salinity to increase regardless of any change in streamflow