Science Source
Some coral diseases track climate oscillations in the Caribbean
- States that understanding coral diseases and their relationships with environmental drivers is necessary to forecast disease outbreaks and to predict future population changes
- Evaluates trends and periodicities in the records of three common coral diseases that were surveyed between 1997 and 2014 at 2082 sites throughout the Caribbean
- Examines the relationship between the periodicities of disease prevalence and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles using cross-wavelet analyses and convergent cross mapping (CCM)
- Finds that the prevalence of the diseases peaked every two to four years, and matched periodicities in ENSO conditions
- CCM models suggest that environmental conditions associated with recent ENSO cycles may have influenced disease prevalence patterns
- Finds that the gradual increase in sea-surface temperature, a consequence of increasing greenhouse gas emissions, progressively raises the modal temperature threshold of each ENSO cycle
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