Satya Ganesh Kakarla, Rajasekhar Mopuri, Srinivasa Rao Mutheneni, Kantha Rao Bhimala, Sriram Kumaraswamy, madhusudhan Rao Kadiri, Krushna Chandra Gouda, Suryanaryana Murty Upadhyayula

Science of The Total Environment

Published date August 1, 2018

Temperature dependent transmission potential model for chikungunya in India

  • States that:
    • During 2016, the National Capital Territory of Delhi experienced an epidemic caused by chikungunya virus with >12,000 cases
    • Similarly, other parts of India also reported a large number of chikungunya cases, highest incidence rate was observed during 2016 in comparison with last 10  years of epidemiological data
  • Uses a model to understand the transmission risk of chikungunya virus which is transmitted by Aedes vectors
  • Gridded temperature data from 1948 to 2016 shows that the mean temperatures are gradually increasing in South India from 1982 to 2016 when compared with data of 1948–1981 time scale
  • During 1982–2016 period many states have reported gradual increase in risk of chikungunya transmission when compared with the 1948–1981 period
  • Shows that transmission of chikungunya occurs between 20 and 34 °C but the peak transmission occurs at 29 °C