Jan 4, 2011

Transient changes in flood frequency and timing in Britain under potential projections of climate change

Kay, A. L., Jones, D. A.
International Journal of Climatology
  • Utilizes three new transient climate projections, from a perturbed parameter ensemble of a regional climate model (RCM) covering the period 1950–2099, to investigate transient changes in flood frequency and timing for two example catchments in England
  • Finds that changes are often non-linear, and vary considerably in size and statistical significance according to catchment, flow time step and RCM ensemble member
  • Concludes that the nationwide results suggest increased flood risk across much of the UK as a result of global climate change