Trapp, Robert J., Diffenbaugh, Noah S., Gluhovsky, Alexander

Geophysical Research Letters

Published date January 3, 2009

Transient response of severe thunderstorm forcing to elevated greenhouse gas concentrations

  • Investigates the transient response of severe-thunderstorm forcing to the time-varying greenhouse gas concentrations associated with the A1B emissions scenario
  • Uses a five-member ensemble of global climate model experiments, and finds a positive trend in such forcing within the United States, over the period 1950–2099
  • Finds that the rate of increase varies by geographic region, depending on (i) low-level water vapor availability and transport, and (ii) the frequency of synoptic-scale cyclones during the warm season
  • Results indicate that deceleration of the greenhouse gas emissions trajectory would likely result in slower increases in severe thunderstorm forcing