Science Source

Trends in heat-related mortality in the United States, 1975-2004

Addresses the long-term trends in heat-related mortality across 29 US metropolitan areas from 1975 to 2004 to discern the spatial patterns and temporal trends in heat vulnerability
Standardizes mortality data to account for population trends, and seasonal and interannual variability
Calculates mean anomalous mortality along with the likelihood that oppressive days led to a mortality response at least one standard deviation above the baseline value, on days when a city experienced an "oppressive" air mass
Results show a general decline in heat-related mortality from the 1970s to 1990s, after which the decline seems to have abated
Finds that the likelihood of oppressive days leading to significant increases in mortality has shown less of a decline
Finds the number of oppressive days has stayed the same or increased at most metropolitan areas
Concludes that with US homes near saturation in terms of air-conditioning availability, an aging population is still significantly vulnerable to heat events