May 24, 2017

Tropospheric Warming Over The Past Two Decades

Benjamin D. Santer, Susan Solomon, Frank J. Wentz, Qiang Fu, Stephen Po-Chedley, Carl Mears, Jeffrey F. Painter, Céline Bonfils
Scientific Reports
  • States that satellite temperature measurements do not support the recent claim of a “leveling off of warming” over the past two decades
  • States that tropospheric warming trends over recent 20-year periods are always significantly larger (at the 10% level or better) than model estimates of 20-year trends arising from natural internal variability
  • Looks at the full 38-year period of the satellite record, and finds the separation between observed warming and internal variability estimates is even clearer
  • Finds that in two out of three recent satellite datasets, the tropospheric warming from 1979 to 2016 is unprecedented relative to internally generated temperature trends on the 38-year timescale