Science Source

Uncertain recovery of the North Atlantic right whale in a changing ocean

States that:
- Efforts to protect at-risk and endangered species typically focus on reducing anthropogenic sources of mortality
- However, failing to recognize the additional role of environmental factors can lead to erroneous demographic analyses and conclusions
Builds capture-recapture models to quantify the role of prey availability on North Atlantic right whale demographic transitional probabilities
Uses a corresponding demographic model to project population growth rates into the next century
Projects future recovery of the right whale population as long as prey availability and mortality rates remain within the ranges observed during 1980–2012
Warns that recent events indicate a northward range shift in right whale prey, potentially resulting in decreased prey availability and/or an expansion of right whale habitat into unprotected waters
Concludes that an annual increase in the number of whale deaths comparable to that observed during the summer 2017 mass mortality event may cause a decline to extinction even under conditions of normal prey availability