Hall, J., Arheimer, B., Borga, M., Brázdil, R., Claps, P., Kiss, A., Kjeldsen, T. R., Kriaučiūnienė, J., Kundzewicz, Z. W., Lang, M., Llasat, M. C., Macdonald, N., McIntyre, N., Mediero, L., Merz, B., Merz, R., Molnar, P., Montanari, A. et al

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

Published date July 30, 2014

Understanding flood regime changes in Europe: a state-of-the-art assessment

  • Reviews the current knowledge on flood regime changes in European rivers that has traditionally been obtained through two alternative research approaches: (1) the data-based detection of changes in observed flood events, and (2) modeled scenarios of future floods
  • Discusses challenges and opportunities associated with flood change scenarios such as fully accounting for uncertainties in the modeling cascade and feedbacks
  • Suggests that a synthesis of these two approaches is needed by focusing on long duration records and flood-rich and flood-poor periods rather than on short duration flood trends only, by formally attributing causes of observed flood changes, by validating scenarios against observed flood regime dynamics, and by developing low-dimensional models of flood changes and feedbacks
  • Finishes with a call for a joint European flood change research network