Science Source

Will Global Warming Make Hurricane Forecasting More Difficult?

Reviews two historical examples of tropical cyclones that intensify rapidly just before landfall
Uses scaling arguments and models to show that rapid intensification just before landfall is likely to become increasingly frequent and severe as the globe warms
Looks at a set of 22,000 continental U.S. landfalling storms downscaled from NCAR/NCEP reanalyses over the period 1979-2005
Analysis suggests that an intensity increase of 60 knots or greater just prior to landfall should occur at a rate of about once per century
Finds that almost all the rapidly intensifying events occur along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico, though a few can be found along the east coast of Florida, particularly the southeast coast, and one in North Carolina in the larger synthetic set
States that the major metropolitan areas most at risk for surprise intensification just before landfall include Houston, New Orleans, Tampa/St. Petersburg, and Miami