Science Source
Winter 2015/16: A Turning Point in ENSO-Based Seasonal Forecasts
- States that the ocean-atmosphere coupled mode known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is considered the dominant mode of global climate variability and is the cornerstone of operational seasonal climate forecasts issued worldwide
- States that winter 2015/16 forecasts are not noteworthy for their success but rather for their flaws. The inability of the global climate models to predict large-scale climate anomalies likely results from the models’ over-sensitivity to tropical forcing
- Argues that Arctic influences were also important in causing the observed weather patterns of winter 2015/16, in particular, diminished Arctic sea ice cover, extreme warm Arctic temperatures, and extensive Siberian snow cover
- Finds the weak response of the models to Arctic forcing contributed to seasonal forecast errors
- Recommends complementing the influence of the tropical ocean with contributions from Arctic factors to improve seasonal climate forecasts
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