May 3, 2017

Hammering the Trend

Grant Foster/Tamino
Open Mind

... there’s a little bit more data available, for 2016 and the first three months of 2017. Here’s an update of the previous graph, adding the 2016 and first-quarter-2017 values:

The big blue dot marks the 1998-through-2015 average of the observations. Notice that it’s above the value at that time for the extrapolated pre-existing trend (shown in red); just when it was supposed to be cooling so rapidly, its 18-year average went up, above expectation.