Mar 23, 2017

Kenya Drought, 2016

by
Peter Uhe, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Kasturi Shah, Joyce Kimutai, Friederike Otto, Geert Jan Van Oldenborgh, Roop Singh, Julie Arrighi, Heidi Cullen
,
World Weather Attribution
  • Finds that the dominant influence on the 2016 drought in Kenya is due to current SST patterns (for example, La Niña)
  • Temperature trends indicate that this drought is hotter than it would have been without climate change
  • Identifies no detectable trend in rainfall, but the team cannot exclude small changes in the risk of poor rains linked to climate change
  • States that all methods apart from EC-Earth in SE Kenya show either no trend or a decrease in likelihood of the drought
  • The station results indicate that the 2010-11 drought was worse than the current drought in Lamu and comparable to the current drought in Marsabit