- Uses an analysis of observations and climate model output
- Demonstrates that:
- The magnitude of rapid intensification (RI), defined as an event where a hurricane increases in intensity by 25 knots or higher in 24 hr, increased in the central and eastern tropical Atlantic during the 30‐year satellite period of 1986–2015
- On the other hand, in the western tropical Atlantic, changes in RI magnitude are insignificant.
- Finds that conspiring changes in the large‐scale hurricane environment brought about by a positive shift in the phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, the dominant mode of decadal climate variability in the Atlantic, are primarily responsible for these changes in RI
- Notes that while previous studies examined the frequency of RI, our study is the first to understand potential changes in RI magnitude.
- Results have substantial implications for the eastern Caribbean Islands, some of which were ravaged by several major hurricanes undergoing RI during the recently concluded 2017 Atlantic hurricane season
Jun 5, 2019 | Scientific Reports
The Roles of Climate Change and Climate Variability in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Nov 14, 2018 | Nature
Anthropogenic influences on major tropical cyclone events
Sep 28, 2018 | AP
Warm waters boosted 2017's major hurricane tally, study says
Sep 28, 2018 | Science
Dominant effect of relative tropical Atlantic warming on major hurricane occurrence