N. P. Gillett, P. A. Stott, B. D. Santer

Geophysical Research Letters

Published date May 13, 2008

Attribution of cyclogenesis region sea surface temperature change to anthropogenic influence

  • States that previous research has identified links between tropical cyclone activity and sea surface temperatures in the tropical cyclogenesis regions of the North Atlantic and Western North Pacific and that other work has demonstrated that warming in these regions is inconsistent with simulated internal variability
  • Evaluates the variability of a suite of climate models on a range of timescales
  • Uses detection and attribution methods and a suite of 20th century simulations including anthropogenic and natural forcing to identify a significant response to external forcing in both regions during the June–November hurricane season over the 20th century
  • Uses separate simulations of the response to natural and anthropogenic forcing to identify anthropogenic influence independently of natural influence in both the Atlantic and Pacific Cyclogenesis Regions