The human influence on Hurricane Florence
This study is the first advanced forecast attribution statement about climate change influence on a tropical cyclone--a breakthrough in climate science. Studies attributing the extent to which climate change influenced a weather event are typically conducted and published after a storm has already hit.
- Rainfall will be significantly increased by over 50% in the heaviest precipitating parts of the storm, due to human interference in the climate system. This increase is substantially larger than expected from thermodynamic considerations alone.
- The storm will remain at a high category on the Saffir-Simpson scale for a longer duration and that the storm will be approximately 80 km (49.7 miles) in diameter larger at landfall, both changes due human interference in the climate system.