Last updated December 12, 2018

Attribution of climate effects on Hurricane Harvey's extreme rainfall in Texas

  • 60-member ensemble simulations suggest that post-1980 climate warming could have contributed to the 4-day precipitation that fell on southeast Texas during 26-25 August 2017 by approximately 20%, with an interquartile range of 13-37%
  • States that, while the attribution outcome could change depending on different models or configurations used and different trend periods analyzed, this downscaling approach affords the closest means possible of a case-to-case comparison for event attribution
  • Further analysis of large ensemble projections of a global climate model tracking Harvey-like stalling systems indicates an increase in storm precipitation over southeast Texas through the mid-21st century