Science Source
Effect of climate change on surface ozone over North America, Europe, and East Asia
- Evaluates the effect of future climate change on surface ozone over North America, Europe, and East Asia using present-day (2000s) and future (2100s) hourly surface ozone simulated by four global models (future climate follows RCP8.5, while methane and anthropogenic ozone precursors are fixed at year-2000 levels)
- Finds that climate change shifts the seasonal surface ozone peak to earlier in the year and increases the amplitude of the annual cycle
- Finds general increases in mean summertime and high-percentile ozone in polluted environments, while decreases are found in clean environments
- Proposes climate change augments the efficiency of precursor emissions to generate surface ozone in polluted regions, thus reducing precursor export to neighboring downwind locations
- Finds that climate change causes the largest ozone increases at high percentiles even with constant biogenic emissions
- Finds that in most cases, air quality extreme episodes become larger and contain higher ozone levels relative to the rest of the distribution
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