Mar 15, 2009

Forced and Internal Twentieth-Century SST Trends in the North Atlantic

Mingfang Ting, Yochanan Kushnir, Richard Seager, and Cuihua Li
AMS Journal of Climate
  • Uses models and observations to detect and attribute long-term (multidecadal) twentieth-century North Atlantic (NA) SST changes to their anthropogenic and natural causes
  • Finds that the long-term, observed, North Atlantic basin-averaged SSTs combine a forced global warming trend with a distinct, local multidecadal “oscillation” that is outside of the range of the model-simulated, forced component and most likely arose from internal variability
  • States that internal variability produced a cold interval between 1900 and 1930, followed by 30 yr of relative warmth and another cold phase from 1960 to 1990, and a warming since then