John T. Abatzoglou, A. Park Williams, Renaud Barbero

Geophysical Research Letters

Published date November 30, 2018

Global Emergence of Anthropogenic Climate Change in Fire Weather Indices

  • States that observed increases in the frequency and severity of fire weather have been seen across portions of the globe over the past half century
  • Uses climate models to identify where and when anthropogenic climate change causes fire weather conditions to exceed that of natural variability
  • Modeling results show that emergence for some fire weather indices is already under way for a sizable portion of the globe, including much of southern Europe and the Amazon, and with an expansion of this area with continued warming over the twenty‐first century
  • These findings suggest substantial increases in fire potential in regions where vegetation abundance and ignitions are not limiting, highlighting the urgency to adapt to changes in fire disturbances and hazards

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