Seung-Ki Min, Xuebin Zhang, Francis W. Zwiers, Gabriele C. Hegerl


Published date February 16, 2011

Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes

  • Shows that human-induced increases in greenhouse gases have contributed to the observed intensification of heavy precipitation events found over approximately two-thirds of data-covered parts of Northern Hemisphere land areas
  • Results are based on a comparison of observed and multi-model simulated changes in extreme precipitation over the latter half of the twentieth century analysed with an optimal fingerprinting technique
  • Concludes that changes in extreme precipitation projected by models, and thus the impacts of future changes in extreme precipitation, may be underestimated because models seem to underestimate the observed increase in heavy precipitation with warming