World Weather Attribution

Published date July 2, 2019

Human contribution to record-breaking June 2019 heatwave in France

  • States that every heatwave occurring in Europe today is made more likely and more intense by human-induced climate change, to a degree of increase depends very strongly on the event's location, season, intensity and duration
  • Conducts a near real-time analysis the role of human activities in the heatwave that struck in the last week of June 2019
  • Uses an event definition that focuses on health impacts, the three-day average of daily mean temperature
  • Considers two spatial scales: the whole of France and one city, Toulouse, but only considers June heatwaves because they have a different impact and different trend from heatwaves in July and August
  • Observations show a very large increase in the temperature of these heatwaves; a heatwave as intense as this one is occurring at least 10 times more frequently today than a century ago