Feb 6, 2016

A projection of changes in landfalling atmospheric river frequency and extreme precipitation over western North America from the Large Ensemble CESM simulations

Hagos, Samson M., Leung, L. Ruby, Yoon, Jin‐Ho, Lu, Jian, Gao, Yang
Geophysical Research Letters
  • Analyses simulations from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble project to investigate the impact of global warming on atmospheric rivers (ARs) making landfall in western North America
  • Models project a 35 percent in the number of landfalling AR days in 2080-2100 compared to 1980-2000 (under Representative concentration pathway 8.5)
  • Also finds that Western North America and Canada can expect a 28 percent increase in the number of extreme precipitation days, thanks to global climate warming
  • States the significantly larger mean changes compared to internal variability, and effects of model biases highlight the robust AR responses to global warming