Nov 15, 2006

Quantifying anthropogenic influence on recent near-surface temperature change

M. R. Allen, N. P. Gillett, J. A. Kettleborough, G. Hegerl, R. Schnur, P. A. Stott, G. Boer, C. Covey, T. L. Delworth, G. S. Jones, J. F. B. Mitchell, T. P. Barnett
Surveys in Geophysics
  • Assesses the extent to which observed large-scale changes in near-surface temperatures over the latter half of the twentieth century can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change as simulated by a range of climate models
  • Rejects the hypothesis that observed changes are entirely due to internal climate variability at a high confidence level independent of the climate model used to simulate either the anthropogenic signal or the internal variability
  • Concludes that the influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gases emerges as a substantial contributor to recent observed climate change, with the estimated trend attributable to greenhouse forcing similar in magnitude to the total observed warming over the 20th century