Science Source
D. C. Morton, G. J. Collatz, D. Wang, J. T. Randerson, L. Giglio, and Y. Chen
Biogeosciences Discussions
Published date June 27, 2012
Biogeosciences Discussions
Published date June 27, 2012
Satellite-based assessment of climate controls on US burned area
- Conducts the first national assessment of climate controls on US fire activity using two satellite-based estimates of monthly burned area (BA), the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED, 1997–2010) and Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS, 1984–2009) BA products
- Analyzes the relationships between monthly BA and potential evaporation (PE) derived from reanalysis climate data at 0.5° resolution for each US National Climate Assessment (NCA) region
- Finds that US fire activity increased over the past 25 yr, with statistically significant increases in MTBS BA for entire US and the Southeast and Southwest NCA regions
- Finds that monthly PE was strongly correlated with US fire activity, yet the climate driver of PE varied regionally
- Finds that fire season temperature and shortwave 15 radiation were the primary controls on PE and fire activity in the Alaska, while water deficit (precipitation – PE) was strongly correlated with fire activity in the Plains regions and Northwest US
- Finds that BA and precipitation anomalies were negatively correlated in all regions, although fuel-limited ecosystems in the Southern Plains and Southwest exhibited positive correlations with longer lead times (6–12 months)
- Finds that fire season PE increased from the 1980s–2000s, enhancing climate-driven fire risk in the southern and western US where PE-BA correlations were strongest
- Finds that spatial and temporal patterns of increasing fire season PE and BA during the 1990s–2000s highlight the potential sensitivity of US fire activity to climate change in coming decades
- Finds, however, that climate- fire relationships at the national scale are complex, based on the diversity of fire types, ecosystems, and ignition sources within each NCA region
- Concludes that changes in the seasonality or magnitude of climate anomalies are therefore unlikely to result in uniform changes in US fire activity
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