Science Source
Sensitivity of snowpack storage to precipitation and temperature using spatial and temporal analog models
- States that empirical sensitivity analyses are important for evaluation of the effects of a changing climate on water resources and ecosystems
- Builds relatively strong models using spatial analogs to relate temperature and precipitation climatology to snowpack climatology (April 1 SWE, R2=0.87, and SRT, R2=0.81)
- Finds that although the poorest temporal analog relationships were in areas showing the highest sensitivity to warming, spatial analog models showed consistent performance throughout the range of temperature and precipitation
- Finds that slopes from the spatial relationships showed greater thermal sensitivity than the temporal analogs, and high elevation stations showed greater vulnerability using a spatial analog than shown in previous modeling and sensitivity studies
- Concludes that the spatial analog models provide a simple perspective to evaluate potential futures and may be useful in further evaluation of snowpack with warming
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