Science Source

Temperature trends in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere: Connections with sea surface temperatures and implications for water vapor and ozone

Analyzes the zonal structure of tropical lower stratospheric temperature, water vapor, and ozone trends
States warming in the tropical upper troposphere over the past 30 years is strongest near the Indo-Pacific warm pool, while the warming trend in the western and central Pacific is much weaker; states that in the lower stratosphere, these trends are reversed: the historical cooling trend is strongest over the Indo-Pacific warm pool and is weakest in the western and central Pacific
Uses targeted experiments with a chemistry-climate model to demonstrate that sea surface temperature (hereafter SST) trends are driving the zonal asymmetry in upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric tropical temperature trends
States warming SSTs in the Indian Ocean and in the warm pool region have led to enhanced moist heating in the upper troposphere
Finds water vapor trends at the tropopause can be explained by trends in saturation water vapor
States the anomalous circulation has led to zonal structure in the ozone and water vapor trends near the tropopause, and subsequently to less water vapor entering the stratosphere