Science Source

Understanding climate change projections for precipitation over western Europe with a weather typing approach

States that precipitation over western Europe (WE) is projected to increase (decrease) roughly northward (equatorward) of 50°N during the 21st century
States these changes are generally attributed to alterations in the regional large-scale circulation, e.g., jet stream, cyclone activity, and blocking frequencies
Uses a novel weather typing within the sector (30°W–10°E, 25–70°N) for a more comprehensive dynamical interpretation of precipitation changes
Identifies eight weather types: S1, S2, S3 (summertime types), W1, W2, W3 (wintertime types), B1, and B2 (blocking-like types)—their distinctive dynamical characteristics allow identifying the main large-scale precipitation-driving mechanisms
Identifies an overestimation of weather type frequencies associated with zonal airflow
Finds the frequencies of the three driest types (S1, B2, and W3) are projected to increase (mainly S1, +4%) in detriment of the rainiest types, particularly W1 (−3%)