Sep 19, 2012

Stratified statistical models of North Atlantic basin-wide and regional tropical cyclone counts

Michael E. Kozar, Michael E. Mann, Suzana J. Camargo, James P. Kossin, and Jenni L. Evans
Journal of Geophysical Research
  • Investigates the link between increased Atlantic sea surface temperatures and tropical cyclone counts using the historical Atlantic tropical cyclone record
  • Considers indices of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and Northern Atlantic Oscillation, and both “local” and “relative” measures of Main Development Region sea surface temperature as predictors, as well as indices measuring the Atlantic Meridional Mode and the West African monsoon
  • Examines the relationships between tropical cyclone counts and climate state variables using all of the potential predictors in a forward stepwise Poisson regression
  • Models both basin-wide named storm counts and cluster analysis time series representing distinct flavors of tropical cyclones as a further extension on past studies
  • Finds that a wide variety of cross validation metrics reveal basin-wide counts or sums over appropriately chosen clusters may be more skillfully modeled than the individual cluster series
  • Ultimately finds that the most skillful models typically share three predictors: indices for the main development region sea surface temperatures, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, and the North Atlantic Oscillation