- Fingerprints the role of global warming in increased sea surface temperatures using climate models to study the possible causes of SST changes in Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclogenesis regions
- States the observed SST increases in these regions range from 0.32°C to 0.67°C over the 20th century
- Finds 22 climate models examined here suggest that century-timescale SST changes of this magnitude cannot be explained solely by unforced variability of the climate system
- Employs model simulations of natural internal variability to make probabilistic estimates of the contribution of external forcing to observed SST changes
- Finds an 84% chance that external forcing explains at least 67% of observed SST increases in the two tropical cyclogenesis regions for the period 1906–2005
- Finds that in experiments in which forcing factors are varied individually rather than jointly, human-caused changes in greenhouse gases are the main driver of the 20th-century SST increases in both tropical cyclogenesis regions
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