Science Source

Aslak Grinsted, John C. Moore, Svetlana Jevrejeva

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Published date August 31, 2012

Homogeneous record of Atlantic hurricane surge threat since 1923

Constructs an independent record of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity on the basis of storm surge statistics from tide gauges
Demonstrates that the major events in our surge index record can be attributed to landfalling tropical cyclones; these events also correspond with the most economically damaging Atlantic cyclones
Finds that warm years in general were more active in all cyclone size ranges than cold years
Finds the largest cyclones are most affected by warmer conditions and we detect a statistically significant trend in the frequency of large surge events (roughly corresponding to tropical storm size) since 1923
Estimates that Katrina-magnitude events have been twice as frequent in warm years compared with cold years (P < 0.02)