Apr 8, 2016
Observed and simulated full-depth ocean heat content changes for 1970–2005
by
,
Ocean Science Discussions
- States that greenhouse-gas emissions have created a planetary energy imbalance that is primarily manifested by increasing ocean heat content (OHC)
- Presents updated observational estimates of full-depth OHC change since 1970 that account for recent advancements in reducing observation errors and biases
- Finds the full-depth OHC has increased by 0.74 [0.68, 0.80] × 1022 J/yr (0.46 Wm−2) and 1.22 [1.16–1.29] ×1022 J/yr (0.75 Wm−2) for 1970-2005 and 1992-2005 respectively, with 5 % to 95 % confidence interval of the median
- Finds the CMIP5 models show large spread in OHC changes, but the ensemble median has excellent agreement with the' observational estimate: 0.68 [0.54–0.82] × 1022 J/yr (0.41 Wm−2) from 1970 to 2005 and 1.25 [1.10–1.41] × 1022 J/yr (0.77 Wm−2) from 1992 to 2005
- States these results increase confidence in both the observational and model estimates to quantify and study changes in Earth’s energy imbalance over the historical period
- Suggests that OHC be a fundamental metric for climate model validation and evaluation